Using StretchRun’s workout scores for handicapping

Workouts are vastly underused by most handicappers, mostly because there are few tools available to interpret them. For example, the Daily Racing Form provides lists of times on a daily basis and within its past performances. However, it’s not the individual workouts that matter, but the pattern used by the trainer over time. Plus, you need to know how each horse compares to the others in the field.

StretchRun has some unique tools for evaluating workouts. As an example, take a look the field for the 4th race at Santa Anita on April 11, 2009.

The W1 and W2 columns provide two different comparisons of a horse’s workout patterns to all of the other horses racing at the the track that day, not just those in the field. A score of 100 represents the median, with any number above or below 100 a percentage of that median.

In this example, Treadwell is a first-time starter with the highest W1 score in the field, and is well above average in W2. I base these scores primarily on number of furlongs worked, with recent works given preference. StretchRun’s workout viewer lets you dig into the details of all the workouts, including viewing times converted to feet-per-second for easy comparison between distances.

This view indicates that only 4 horses in the field worked out in the last 7 days, and Treadwell had a full 6 furlong work just 4 days ago. The results below speak for themselves, with the top 2 W1 horses running 1-2 and 3 of the 4 horses with workouts in the last 7 days running running 1-2-3.

Handicappers on the west coast, particularly Southern California, should have a deep understanding of workout patterns or they’ll be missing out on valuable information. Players at smaller tracks and outside California may have to be more forgiving for poor workout numbers, given the number of horses that work off-track or are galloped into shape.

StretchRun’s workout analysis has no equal among handicapping programs and will help you eliminate false favorites and find the value play, especially when playing maiden races.

Tagged as: workouts